Crypto Prediction Markets: Geopolitical Bets Go Mainstream on Platforms
According to a guest post by Shardeum co-founder Nischal Shetty, crypto prediction platforms like Polymarket saw increased mainstream adoption in 2025. An example cited is a trader who profited from betting on Nicolás Maduro's removal from power. The platform saw over $10.5 million in bets related to a potential U.S. invasion. However, Polymarket faced controversy for refusing to settle certain contracts, raising questions about regulatory gaps. The shift towards mainstream adoption was driven by architectural changes, with decentralized perpetual platforms moving to purpose-built environments like Hyperliquid's custom Layer 1 and dYdX's migration to a Cosmos-based appchain, improving execution speed and reducing gas fees. Liquidity engineering and distribution also played key roles in this evolution.
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