The Federal Reserve is considering integrating Bitcoin into its 2026 stress tests, which could create capital risks for banks. The Fed is seeking public comment on its 2026 scenarios and proposing new transparency requirements for model updates. The question is whether the Fed can treat Bitcoin as a stress-test variable without adopting it as policy. If bank exposures to Bitcoin via custody, derivatives, or ETF intermediation become large enough to impact capital or liquidity, the Fed may model BTC price shocks. This wouldn't signal endorsement but indicate Bitcoin's embeddedness in regulated balance sheets. The stress tests feed into the Stress Capital Buffer, determining the capital large banks must hold. The 2026 scenarios include 28 variables, but Bitcoin isn't among them.

The Federal Reserve is considering integrating Bitcoin into its 2026 stress tests, which could create capital risks for banks. The Fed is seeking public comment on its 2026 scenarios and proposing new transparency requirements for model updates. The question is whether the Fed can treat Bitcoin as a stress-test variable without adopting it as policy. If bank exposures to Bitcoin via custody, derivatives, or ETF intermediation become large enough to impact capital or liquidity, the Fed may model BTC price shocks. This wouldn't signal endorsement but indicate Bitcoin's embeddedness in regulated balance sheets. The stress tests feed into the Stress Capital Buffer, determining the capital large banks must hold. The 2026 scenarios include 28 variables, but Bitcoin isn't among them.